Last Minute Bettin' Advice for the US Open (with Odds)

Amidst the buzz and furor over LIV golf, the start-up golf league fronted by Greg Norman and financed by the Saudi Government (think Teddy KGB, using Grama to back Mike and Worm during their quixotical poker quest, but for golfers), the third Major of the year, The United States Open, will be played outside of Boston, Massachusetts, at a course so old that it is simply knows as The County Club…no preface needed.

It’s a shame that the LIV golf talk is dominating the narrative of this Championship because it has all the markings for a classic.  With Rory Mcilroy coming off a win in Canada last week, Justin Thomas looking to add a second Major to his yearly triumphs, and Scottie Scheffler having a career year, the field is deep and talented, playing a course that will test all of their skills (a notorious US Open trademark is deep rough and high scores).

So, let’s talk about some betting favorites, some sleepers, and some names to throw into your Fantasy team that could make some noise this week at the Country Club in Brookline. 

Dimers.com runs 1,000’s of simulations for every sporting event and the top four players in our simulations are Justin Thomas (12-1 odds) with a win percentage of 8.7%.  Since it’s extremely difficult to repeat in Majors (it has only been done 19 times by 13 different golfers—a rate of 6.4 %), history is not on Thomas’ side, but he should surely contend, so putting him in a Fantasy lineup is a good bet. 

Right behind Thomas, not surprisingly, is Rory Mcilroy (11-1 odds) with a win percentage of 8.2%.  Full disclosure:  Rory is my pick for the week and the betting favorite as well.  I also picked him at the PGA, and after his first day showing, I was counting my winnings and heading to Vegas.  It didn’t quite work out like I had planned, but he still finished in 8^th place, only 3 off the lead, so even though it didn’t feel like he was in contention on Sunday, he was right there.

Rounding out the top 4 Dimers’ picks are Scottie Scheffler (14-1 odds) with a 5.3% chance of winning and The Big Spaniard, Jon Rahm, also coming in at 14-1 odds with a 5.2% chance for the trophy.  You can’t go throwing some cash on any one of those four, as they are the betting favorites, but let’s look at some other names that can make some noise.

It’s hard not to lay down some scratch on Matt Fitzpatrick, seeing has how he won at The Country Club as an amateur in 2013 along with his stellar play this year.  He was close at the PGA Championship and should be close again here, (28-1 odds).  I also like Tony Finau (33-1) this week, even though his wins are few and far between, a major talent just waiting for his breakthrough and was in contention a week ago.  Finally, it’s not a matter of will Will Zalatoris (25-1) win a major but when will Will win (whew…got all that?).  Bottom line:  it’s going to happen eventually; why not this week?

Dark Horses and Fantasy Team Fillers:  Hideki Matsuyma (40-1) is as much a lock to make the cut as anyone in the field, having done so in 8 straight majors.  He should be in your Fantasy lineup.  Cameron Young (50-1) and sweet-swinging Davis Riley (66-1) both had good showings at the PGA championship, and I see them continuing and contending here as well.  Tommy Fleetwood (50-1) is someone who always seems to be lurking at Majors and big events, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he plays well this week.

A couple of other names you can’t count out: Brooks Koepka (40-1), still formidable when on and fully engaged and Cameron Smith (22-1) if he can drive it straight this week is as good as anyone.  Let’s throw in Keegan Bradley, at a whopping 100-1 odds, not only for his New England roots but resurgent play of late as well.

Players to avoid:  Phil Mickelson (too old and distracted), Tyrell Hatton (Always angry about something), Dustin Johnson (just ready to get back to LIV golf and fat paychecks).

With all that said, good luck everyone.  Enjoy the Open!

• KJL