Scotland is the home of golf, with players first hitting rocks and later balls on its terrain since the 15th century, and St. Andrews, therefore, is the mother church. St. Andrews Royal and Ancient Golf Course, in Fife, Scotland overlooking the North Sea, has been hosting Open Championships since 1873, twenty-nine tournaments in all, usually held every five years.
St. Andrews is so iconic and ensconced in the history of the sport itself that Tiger Woods skipped our National Championship, the United States Open, so that he would be in his best physical condition to make the trip across the pond to play on its links. And Bobby Jones said the measure of a true champion was winning The Open at the Old Course.
And now, as the 150th Open—or as us treasonous rebels call it, The British Open—is set to kick off, the question becomes: who has a chance to win this thing? A treeless, links-style course has only bunkers and weather as its primary defenses, and it’s the latter that will have the most effect on the outcome. The huge fairways at St. Andrews will help the long bombers, but precise iron play is a must, especially in uncertain weather conditions. So, who has the game and the moxie to make a run in this Championship?
The hottest player on the planet right now is none other than the X Man, Xander Schauffele (+1600), and since Dimers runs 1,000s of simulations to predict the outcome, it’s no surprise that Xander comes out with the second highest percentage (6.3%) to win the Championship. He has won the last two PGA sanctioned events in which he’s played and has also won a Pro-Am, giving him three straight wins when he teed it up. He has to be on your radar.My personal picks for this week also align with Dimers’ simulations, as I like R&R this week. No, not Rest and Relaxation, but Rory (+1000), who comes in at number one with an 8.7% chance to win and John Rahm (+1800) rounding out the top 5 with a 4.7% chance.
Rory has played some great golf at the Majors this year, finishing top 10 in each, and I think he’s as focused as he’s been in years on winning a major, and this is his last crack at it this trip around the sun. Rahm can pummel this course with his length and though his iron play has slipped of late, he still has the game to get it done. If his putter his hot and his temper is not, he should be in contention come Sunday.
Of course, if you’re from the United Kingdom, winning the British Open is on your list of most meaningful accomplishments, so a native player’s run can be kind of magical, just ask Darren Clarke (Open Champion, 2011) and Shane Lowry (Open Champion, 2019), so don’t be surprised if Lowery (+2200), Tommy Fleetwood (+3500), and Matt Fitzpatrick (+2200). have good showings this week. These are good players to fill out your fantasy lineup as well.
Dark horses are always fun to pick, even if they are rarely profitable, since it means big bucks if they do hit, so continuing on the theme of “home-field advantage,” what about Paddy Harrington (+20000) tickling in some puts and entertaining us with his great Irish brogue. Remember Tom Watson’ run in 2009 at the ripe old age of 59? Of course, this was at Turnberry and not St. Andrews, but you get the idea. Seamus Power (+8000) and Justin Rose (+6600) also fit the bill here and may be worth throwing a couple of bucks at for a nice payout.
Players to Fade: As much as it pains me to say this, I don’t think Tiger (+8000) has a legitimate shot to win this week, but at 80-1 it’s hard not to take a flier on him. I do think he makes the cut and has a good showing, but vying for the title is a little out of reach, at least this year.
I also am not excited about Justin Thomas’ (+2200) chances this week, even though our simulations have him with a little better than a 4% chance to win. He’s a great player and undoubtedly one of the best in the game, but I feel he has sort of packed it in for the year. He’s fought hard, won his major, and now he can kick back and enjoy the fruits of his labor, which he has been doing lately. Plus, his track record at The Open Championship is less than stellar.
Finally, I would avoid all the LIV golf guys with the exception of Dustin Johnson (+3500). Most of these guys are either older, have major flaws in their game, or coming off injury. Also, have you seen the jet these players are flying around in? How hungry can they be? DJ might be the only one with the game and the temperament to rise above all noise surrounding the upstart league.
As always the case, I believe Tony Finau (+5000) has the game to win a major, so why not this one. He has played good in the Open before and keeps an even keel. And I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the defending champ, Collin Morikawa (+3000), who also has the right temperament and the game to play well at St. Andrews.
We shall see which way the wind blows this weekend at the Old Course, allowing it either to show its teeth or be rendered a pitch and putt. But no matter if the scores are high or low, no worries; just sit back, have a spot of tee, enjoy the scenes of St. Andrews and listen to the bagpipes blowing. Take it all in, for golf is home once again.
- Kent Landry also writes for Dimers.com. Check out Dimers to view all possible winners of the 2022 Open according to their simulations.